Tom Haudricourt Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Published 12:54 PM EST Feb 13, 2019
PHOENIX – Craig Counsell's customary method of announcing his opening day starting pitcher is to wait as long into spring training as possible and still get away with it.
It's not that Counsell likes to keep people guessing, though he sort of does. It's mostly to avoid announcing one pitcher early in camp, then have something go awry and have to switch to another pitcher who obviously wasn't the first choice.
But a good guess this spring certainly would be veteran right-hander Jhoulys Chacín, who emerged as the team's ace in 2018 and was the winner in the Game No. 163 showdown against the Chicago Cubs for the National League Central title. Chacín certainly earned that honor with his performance last season and has pitched in openers for both Colorado and San Diego.
Asked about that possibility, Counsell merely quipped, "Jhoulys Chacín will be in our rotation. I can confirm that."
After that, are there any real guarantees? Perhaps not, though you'd think Chase Anderson and Zach Davies are near locks if healthy and throwing the ball well this spring.
With very few spots on the roster open for position players and the bullpen practically set as well, the competition for the starting rotation should be the most interesting part of camp. Here's a look at the candidates who will vie for the five "initial out-getter" spots, in alphabetical order (and you will notice they are all right-handers):
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RHP Chase Anderson: A breakthrough 2017 season (12-4, 2.74 ERA in 25 starts) earned Anderson his first opening day start last year, as well as a two-year contract extension with a couple of option years. But Anderson seemed to fidget with his mechanics much of the season and never got comfortable for any extended stretch. He had trouble keeping the ball in the park, particularly at home (22 HRs in 82 1/3 innings, with 5.03 ERA).
Anderson regrouped in July (2.05 ERA in five starts) but then slipped again, often getting quick hooks by Counsell. With the team's postseason fate in the balance in the final weeks, Anderson was removed from the rotation and never returned. He was not included on the rosters for either the NL Division Series or NL Championship Series, which wounded his pride greatly. To go from opening day starter to inactive in the postseason was not the way Anderson expected the season to unfold, and he says it is tremendous motivation.
"It provides a little bit of fuel to get back to the pitcher I know I can be and hopefully lead the staff to pitch in the postseason," he said. "I want to be part of that as much as anybody. You look at the best pitchers in this game and they always have that kind of mentality. I think it gives you that extra edge. I'm looking forward to having that on the mound this year."
RHP Corbin Burnes: A starter who roared through the farm system after being drafted in the fourth round in 2016 out of tiny St. Mary's (Calif.) College, Burnes made his big-league debut last season as a reliever because of need and thrived. He soon was trusted in high-leverage situations and became a big part of the team's September push to the NL Central crown.
Burnes posted a 7-0 record and 2.61 ERA in 30 appearances for the Brewers, with a sparkling 1.000 WHIP. His true four-pitch mix makes him profile more as a starting pitcher, and that is the role in which he will try to win a job during spring training.
"I'm looking forward to it," Burnes said. "I had some success last year out of the bullpen but I've always been most comfortable as a starter. As we get closer to the season, we'll see what other need there may be, but I'm coming in as a starter and I fully intend on being a starter.
"There's going to be a lot of competition but that's what you want. We were one game away from the World Series. That's something that will drive us. My thing is to be aggressive and attack hitters. I'm here to try to earn a spot in the rotation on the opening day roster. That's what I've had my mindset on all off-season."
RHP Jhoulys Chacín: When Chacín signed a two-year, $15.5 million deal as a free agent in December 2017, he was considered a complementary piece to the rotation. As it turned out, he evolved into the staff ace, going 15-8 with a 3.50 ERA in 35 starts. Chacín was the only starter to take every turn and easily led the staff with 192 2/3 innings.
It was no surprise when Counsell tweaked the rotation in the final weeks to line up Chacín for a possible Game No. 163 should the Brewers tie the Cubs for first place in the NL Central. Sure enough, that scenario played out, and Chacín delivered in a big way, allowing only one hit in 5 2/3 innings as the Brewers squeezed out a 3-1 victory at Wrigley Field to take the crown.
"That gave me so much confidence," said Chacín, who proceeded to go 2-1 with a 1.46 ERA in three postseason starts. "I was so happy they trusted me with that game. We did what we needed to do to win that game. I know that made our fans happy to take the division from the Cubs."
"I don't say I'm the ace. We're all part of it. We have a lot of good arms on our staff. We all helped each other. It was a true team. It was not one individual. That's why we went a long way. It was a good experience for everybody. I think it will make us better for this year."
RHP Zach Davies: After leading the Brewers with 17 victories in 191 innings over 33 starts in 2017, Davies appeared primed to establish himself as one of the anchors in the rotation. Instead, he had an injury-plagued year and made only 13 starts, skidding to a 2-7 record and 4.77 ERA. First came shoulder woes, then a lower back issue and Davies never looked right again, spending two months in the minors on rehab assignment trying to get right.
As with Anderson, Davies was left off the postseason rosters before being added in the NLCS after Gio Gonzalez rolled his ankle in Game 4 in Los Angeles. So he, too, has a lot to prove in 2019 and just as much motivation. A soft tosser who relies on pinpoint control to hit spots and carve up hitters, Davies will get every chance to claim a job in the rotation if he looks healthy in camp and on top of his game.
RHP Junior Guerra: Sent to the minors in the final cut of spring training last season, Guerra returned to the majors less than two weeks later and began taking regular turns in the rotation. He held his own throughout the first half (6-6, 3.23 ERA) but suffered a forearm strain in July, a malady he experienced in previous seasons related to his extensive use of a splitter.
After that, Guerra became less and less effective. Counsell stuck with him in August but Guerra did not reward that confidence, posting a 7.10 ERA over five starts in August. That skid finally cost him, and Guerra pitched out of the bullpen afterward, including the postseason. At 34, Guerra probably is a long shot to make the rotation and might have to win a job in relief to make the team.
RHP Jimmy Nelson: A true wild card after missing all of the 2018 season while recovering from shoulder surgery, Nelson announced his determination to make the rotation out of camp, with an eye on the opening day job. That is an admirable goal for a pitcher frothing at the bit to return to action but probably not realistic considering the team's plans to be careful with him this spring.
"Look, we're going to be cautious with Jimmy," president of baseball operations David Stearns said. "He probably doesn't want to hear that. He's going to try to push this as fast as he can. We're going to make sure we're watching everything he does out there."
If Nelson can even come close to the form he flashed before blowing out his shoulder in September 2017, after his long absence it would be like trading for an experienced starter. There is no way to know how far he will come back, but the Brewers and Nelson will begin finding out this spring.
RHP Freddy Peralta: A diminutive pitcher who relies mostly on his fastball, Peralta made some impressive starts in his first major-league season, including a 13-strikeout debut in Colorado. At times he created his own jams with wildness (4.6 walks per nine innings) but no teams really hit him hard during his four stints with the Brewers, as evidenced by the mere 49 hits allowed in 78 1/3 innings. He struck out 96 hitters, a remarkable number considering they knew fastballs were coming most of the time.
Peralta is just 22 and with options remaining would have to pitch great in camp to avoid being returned to the minors to maintain depth. But he showed absolutely no fear as a rookie in 2018 and performed well enough to be kept on the postseason roster, tossing three hitless innings against the Dodgers in Game 4 of the NLCS.
RHP Josh Tomlin: A mainstay in Cleveland's rotation for several seasons, Tomlin had trouble keeping the ball in the park in 2018 (25 HRs in 70 innings) and was exiled to relief duty. He finished with a 2-5 record and 6.14 ERA in 32 games (nine starts) with 92 hits allowed.
Tomlin's calling card has been impeccable control, leading to only 1.3 walks per nine innings. He is a non-roster invitee to camp, however, and therefore will have to stand out to make the club.
RHP Brandon Woodruff: It's difficult to say whether Woodruff helped or hurt his cause in terms of making the rotation by pitching so well out of the bullpen down the stretch last season. He was 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA in 15 relief outings, including a 0.73 ERA in seven appearances in September.
Able to rear back and fire when pitching in short bursts, Woodruff pitched consistently in the high 90s (mph) out of the bullpen, rarely getting hit. He has yet to be given a chance to take regular turns for any period of time with the Brewers, so it's difficult to say how effective he'd be as a starter. One way or the other, he figures to help the team in 2019.
By the numbers0 Complete games by Brewers starters in 2018.
3.92 Starting ERA last season, seventh in the National League.
847 Innings pitched by starters in '18, fourth-fewest in the league.
1.163 WHIP by Jhoulys Chacín last season, best of his career.
30 HRs allowed last year by Chase Anderson, most in the NL.
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